Nigerians are willing to vote in the 2027 general elections, but fears over electoral violence, distrust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and vote buying could prevent that willingness from translating into actual turnout, Yiaga Africa has warned.
The warning was contained in the organisation’s third National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, titled “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027”, released on Wednesday.
The survey showed that 84 per cent of respondents were likely or very likely to vote, up from 77 per cent in December 2025 and 73 per cent in March 2026.
However, only 47 per cent said they were very likely to vote, down from 52 per cent in December and 48 per cent in March. Overall, just 41 per cent were both likely to vote and very certain of their decision.
The survey, conducted in September among 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, found electoral violence to be the biggest threat to participation.
About 61 per cent of respondents said fear of violence could stop them from voting, rising to 78 per cent in the North-East. Conversely, 83 per cent said improved security would make them more likely to vote.
Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the findings showed that Nigerians were not apathetic towards elections but faced obstacles that could keep them away from polling units.
“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, they see it as their duty and they believe their votes can make a difference,” Bichi said.
She added, “Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem.”
The survey also showed continued low confidence in INEC, with only 34 per cent of respondents expressing confidence that INEC would conduct credible elections. This compared with 45 per cent recorded in both previous rounds.
Distrust was highest in the South-East, where 62 per cent said they lacked confidence in INEC, followed by the South-South with 57 per cent.
Despite the low confidence in the commission, 49 per cent of respondents said they trusted the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal for voter accreditation and result transmission.
Awareness of electoral reforms increased sharply, however, rising from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent in September 2026.
The survey also identified economic hardship as a major factor likely to influence voting decisions. About 71 per cent of respondents rated the economy as poor or very poor, while 54 per cent disapproved of President Bola Tinubu’s performance.
A desire for a change in leadership was the leading motivation for voting, cited by 49 per cent of respondents.
The economy and jobs were identified as the leading policy priority by 38 per cent, while 36 per cent cited security.
Yiaga Africa said candidates would therefore face voters seeking clear solutions to economic hardship, unemployment and insecurity.
The survey also revealed a generational gap in voting intentions. Only 40 per cent of young respondents said they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of those aged 61 and above.
According to the organisation, young people also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC and greater reliance on social media for election-related information.
Yiaga Africa called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security by November 2026.
It urged authorities to give priority to the North-East, North-West and North-Central and focus security arrangements on protecting voters rather than only securing election materials.
The organisation also asked INEC to commit publicly to real-time uploading of polling-unit results to IReV and publish and test its results-management protocol.
It further called for targeted confidence-building measures in the South-East and South-South, while urging the judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballot papers are printed.
Political parties and candidates were urged to campaign on practical plans for tackling insecurity and economic hardship, sign and honour the Peace Accord and adopt an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.
Yiaga Africa said rebuilding trust, improving election security and tackling vote buying would be critical to ensuring that Nigerians’ willingness to vote translates into actual participation when the presidential election holds on Jan
Discussion0