KPMG has urged Nigerian businesses to prepare for different political and economic outcomes from the 2027 general elections, warning that companies that rely on a single political forecast could struggle to respond to sudden changes.
The Chief Executive Officer of KPMG One Africa, Tola Adeyemi, gave the advice on Wednesday at the KPMG–Franco-Nigerian Chamber of Commerce and Industry CEO Luncheon Series in Lagos, where he outlined three possible scenarios for businesses after the elections.
The event was themed “Political Dynamics and Global Realignment: A CEO’s Playbook for Resilient Growth".
Adeyemi identified the scenarios as continuity if the incumbent retains power, policy recalibration if the opposition wins, and heightened uncertainty if an inconclusive election leads to a rerun.
He said businesses must remain agile as political developments, global economic realignment, geopolitical tensions and changing government policies could create both risks and opportunities.
“Resilience is the ability to deal with adversity, withstand shocks and continuously adapt and accelerate as disruptions and crises arise over time,” Adeyemi said.
He said companies should strengthen their capacity to anticipate emerging risks, absorb shocks, adjust resources and priorities, and move quickly to take advantage of new opportunities.
KPMG said five areas would be particularly important for businesses to monitor as the political environment evolves: fiscal and taxation policy, monetary policy, infrastructure and investment, social development and security, and sector priorities.
Under a continuity scenario, the firm expects the government to sustain its tax and structural reform agenda, maintain the fuel-subsidy-free regime and continue the Central Bank of Nigeria’s focus on inflation, liquidity and foreign exchange conditions.
It also expects continued investment in transport, power, housing, water and digital infrastructure, alongside efforts to improve electricity supply.
However, KPMG said an opposition victory could lead to a review of the pace and sequencing of existing economic reforms, with possible changes to fuel policy, taxation, customs duties and import restrictions.
It said such an administration could place greater emphasis on industrialisation, local manufacturing, agriculture and energy.
The firm also warned that Nigeria’s exposure to global economic uncertainty could increase through currency volatility, trade disruptions and commodity-price swings, particularly as geopolitical tensions, inflation, higher financing costs and trade fragmentation reshape the global economy.
Despite the risks, KPMG identified closer trade and investment ties with China, Gulf countries and other emerging markets as opportunities for Nigerian companies.
It also pointed to Nigeria’s oil, gas, mineral and agricultural resources and its large young population as structural advantages businesses could exploit.
Adeyemi urged companies to look beyond short-term political uncertainty and prepare for longer-term changes in the Nigerian economy.
KPMG’s CEO playbook recommends that businesses plan for multiple scenarios, see Nigeria as a platform rather than merely a market, turn challenges into opportunities, derive measurable value from artificial intelligence, localise operations and remain patient.
Speaking at the event, France’s Consul General in Lagos, Laurent Favier, said the gathering had become a platform for exchanging ideas on issues capable of shaping the economy.
Favier expressed hope that Nigeria would have a free and fair election in 2027 and urged businesses to turn global economic risks into opportunities in regional markets.
The Chief Executive Officer of NGX, Jude Chiemeka, advised chief executives to adopt a transformational approach and use technology as a major enabler of growth.
He also urged businesses to focus on scaling, noting that the capital market remained an avenue for companies to raise funds.
The founding partner of Olisa Agbakoba Legal, Dr Olisa Agbakoba, however, warned that the cost-of-living crisis would remain a major challenge for Nigerians and predicted a fresh contest of economic ideas among political parties ahead of the election.
He also said crude oil prices could decline going forward.
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