The Presidency has rejected an assessment by The Economist magazine that President Bola Tinubu could retain power in 2027 despite widespread dissatisfaction with his administration, insisting that his economic reforms are beginning to reverse years of structural weaknesses.
The magazine, in an October 1 analysis titled “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway”, attributed Tinubu’s prospects to Nigeria’s “complicated electoral dynamics”, including incumbency, a divided opposition, religious considerations and historically low voter turnout.
But the Presidency pushed back against the assessment, defending the reforms introduced since Tinubu assumed office in 2023.
Sunday Dare, the president's Special Adviser, rejected the claim in a statement on Tuesday, arguing that the publication ignored the near-bankrupt economy Tinubu inherited in May 2023 and the reforms introduced since.
Dare said the idea of millions harbouring blind hatred collapses against everyday reality, and he insisted the policies had set the country on an irreversible path to steady growth.
Also, Presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga said critics had failed to acknowledge the economic problems inherited by the administration and the difficult decisions taken to address them.
According to Onanuga, previous governments focused on the symptoms of Nigeria’s economic problems while allowing deeper structural weaknesses to worsen.
“They focused on symptoms while allowing the disease to take hold deep within the fabric of our society. We spent enormous sums sustaining inefficient arrangements that were never intended to last,” he said.
Onanuga also cited Tinubu’s Independence Day address, in which the President argued that his reforms did not create Nigeria’s economic weaknesses but were intended to confront them.
“Our reforms did not create the weaknesses in our economy. They confronted them,” Tinubu said in the address.
The Economist acknowledged that Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, had been welcomed by investors, but argued that their benefits had yet to translate into improved living conditions for most Nigerians.
It also pointed to insecurity, particularly in parts of northern Nigeria, and said the country’s expected 4.1 per cent economic growth this year had yet to make a significant difference to many households.
The publication cited the fragmentation of the opposition as one of the factors that could work in Tinubu’s favour, noting that former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State governor Peter Obi were running separately.
It quoted Control Risks analyst Joachim MacEbong as saying the opposition’s anti-APC vote was “not coalesced into a single vote”.
Religion was also identified as a potential factor, with the magazine noting that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima are Muslims and that the religious composition of the ticket could resonate with voters in northern Nigeria.
The Economist, however, stopped short of declaring Tinubu certain to win, arguing that his electoral advantage could persist despite dissatisfaction with his administration.
The African Democratic Congress rejected that assessment, saying the cost-of-living crisis would be more decisive than religion or ethnicity in determining the 2027 result.
The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the ADC agreed that Tinubu was unpopular but disagreed with the suggestion that he could therefore win the election.
“The article focuses on the role that religion and ethnicity could play in the election, but the argument is overstated,” Abdullahi said.
“Nigerians across all divides are united under the cost-of-living crisis that the Tinubu administration has plunged them into. And this will determine how they will vote more than anything else.”
The Nigeria Democratic Congress (ND) also questioned The Economist’s conclusion, asking how the publication could acknowledge concerns about Tinubu’s popularity and still project that he could win.
“For us at the NDC, we don’t see any pathway to victory for Tinubu save outright rigging and manipulation,” the party said.
The party alleged that Nigerians would resist any attempt to compromise the electoral process, although it provided no independently verified evidence to support its claim.
Meanwhile, the Presidency maintained that the government’s economic strategy was beginning to produce results.
Tinubu said in his Independence Day address that the economy had grown by more than four per cent, with both the oil and non-oil sectors contributing to what he described as a period of more stable growth.
“For too long, the promise of Nigeria was undermined by choices that postponed difficult decisions and allowed deep economic distortions to grow,” Tinubu said.
“By 2023, poverty was rising, and hope was nearly gone. The country’s situation was darker than ever. We had no choice but to act.”
He likened the economic reforms to painful treatment required to address a serious illness, arguing that previous governments had relied on temporary measures instead of tackling underlying problems.
The Economist’s analysis also warned that continued insecurity and the failure of economic growth to translate into better living conditions could leave voters dissatisfied ahead of the 2027 election.
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