The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, citing improved macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The projection, contained in the bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, is up from the estimated four per cent growth recorded in 2025.
The World Bank expects the Nigerian economy to expand by 4.4 per cent in both 2027 and 2028, although it warned that the outlook remains exposed to domestic and global risks.
The bank’s assessment also showed that the naira was among the more resilient African currencies during the period of heightened exchange-rate pressure between March and June.
The naira recorded a maximum depreciation of 2.6 per cent during the period, compared with a 10 per cent decline recorded by Ghana’s cedi. Currencies in South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia and Eswatini fell by as much as 7.2 per cent.
Nigeria’s currency subsequently recovered some ground, gaining 1.9 per cent from its March-to-June low by August.
The World Bank attributed part of the naira’s resilience to Nigeria’s position as a major crude oil exporter, saying higher oil prices helped boost export earnings and foreign exchange inflows.
It said the currency pressures experienced across African markets were driven by stronger demand for the US dollar, capital outflows and concerns over the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debt.
Despite the improved outlook, the bank warned that Nigeria’s growth could be affected by tighter global financial conditions, prolonged conflict in the Middle East, insecurity, climate-related shocks and disruptions to crude oil production.
It also listed increased government spending ahead of the 2027 elections as a potential risk.
The World Bank urged Nigeria to sustain its economic reforms and build stronger policy buffers to protect the gains recorded so far.
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