Canada’s unity faces a fresh test as residents of oil-rich Alberta vote on whether the province should take steps towards holding a binding referendum on independence.
The vote, scheduled for Monday, comes amid growing resentment over the federal government’s management of Alberta’s oil industry and concerns about the economic consequences of separation.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that a victory for separatists could create prolonged uncertainty, particularly as Canada faces a trade dispute with the United States under President Donald Trump.
Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has urged residents to turn out and vote, arguing that the outcome could have far-reaching implications for the country.
Polls suggest that fewer than a quarter of Albertans support independence, but attention has centred on voter turnout and whether separatists can outperform expectations.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative who says she wants the province to remain in Canada, called the vote to address the divisive issue. She has pledged to pursue a binding independence referendum if a majority supports taking that step, while promising to consider the matter settled if the separatists lose.
The province has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and the independence movement has drawn support from residents who believe Ottawa has undermined the sector through its environmental policies.
Smith has blamed former prime minister Justin Trudeau for fuelling separatist sentiment, saying his government’s approach to the oil industry alienated many Albertans.
At a separatist rally in Edmonton on Saturday, oil industry supporters accused the federal government of treating the province unfairly.
Carney, drawing on his experience as governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit period, warned that uncertainty over the terms of separation could discourage investment and weaken economic performance.
The ballot contains 10 questions, including issues related to immigration, but the main focus is whether Alberta should remain a Canadian province or take the legal steps required to hold a definitive independence vote.
The provincial election authority said votes on the separation question would be counted first, with results expected early on Tuesday.
The campaign has also been affected by concerns about manipulated artificial intelligence-generated content. Aengus Bridgman, director of McGill University’s Media Ecosystem Observatory, warned that the outcome could leave some voters believing the process was unfair.
The debate has attracted attention from prominent figures in the United States. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously described Alberta as a natural partner for the country, while billionaire Elon Musk called for Alberta and neighbouring Saskatchewan to separate from Canada.
Carney has warned foreign governments, including the United States, against interfering in Canadian elections.
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