The Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) has warned that urbanisation and shrinking green spaces are worsening heat in Lagos.
Dr Edward Akinnigbagbe, Assistant Director and Acting Head, Department of Marine Meteorology and Climate at NIOMR, said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Tuesday in Lagos.
Akinnigbagbe identified vegetation loss, traffic, generator emissions and expanding concrete surfaces as factors intensifying heat in the state.
Citing a satellite-based study published in Scientific Reports in 2022, he said urbanisation and global climate change had contributed to rising land-surface temperatures in Lagos.
He said the study estimated that urbanisation contributed 0.985 degrees Celsius per decade to rising daytime land-surface temperatures, compared with 0.44 degrees attributed to global climate change.
“Climate change raises the baseline, but how we built Lagos amplifies it two times,” Akinnigbagbe said.
He explained that replacing forests, wetlands and open spaces with concrete and asphalt increased daytime heat absorption and prolonged heat release after sunset.
According to him, this contributed to the urban heat island effect, in which built-up areas retain more heat than greener surroundings.
He added that corrugated metal roofs, closely packed buildings, high perimeter fences and small windows could worsen indoor heat by trapping warmth and restricting airflow.
Akinnigbagbe said electricity shortages further limited residents’ access to fans and other cooling devices, making it harder to escape uncomfortable indoor temperatures.
He said the loss of trees and green spaces weakened the city’s natural cooling capacity by reducing shade and moisture released through vegetation.
“Trees are natural cooling systems,” he said.
The scientist identified outdoor workers in markets, bus parks and other exposed workplaces as particularly vulnerable because they often lacked adequate shade.
He explained that high humidity could hinder sweat evaporation, reducing the body’s ability to cool itself in hot conditions.
He added that inadequate access to cooling after work could prevent residents from recovering from heat exposure before another working day.
On climate change and El Niño, Akinnigbagbe said global warming raised the temperature baseline, while El Niño could influence atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns.
NAN reports that El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures become unusually warm in parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, potentially affecting weather patterns elsewhere.
In its Aug. 13, 2026, seasonal climate update, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event.
The agency said the event was expected to influence global climate patterns from August to October.
Akinnigbagbe said coastal areas such as Lagos could experience reduced rainfall under certain climate patterns, although the effects varied by location and season.
He warned that rising temperatures could worsen heat-related challenges in Lagos, making urban planning and environmental protection increasingly important.
“Temperatures could reach 42 degrees Celsius by 2030, 44 degrees by 2050 and 46 degrees by 2070,” he said.
On possible interventions, Akinnigbagbe recommended expanding tree cover, protecting existing green spaces and adopting building practices that reduced heat absorption.
He suggested reflective roofing materials, improved ventilation and more shaded public spaces to reduce heat exposure.
For residents without air conditioning, he advised improving airflow and avoiding prolonged exposure to direct sunlight during the hottest hours.
He also called for development decisions that protected natural landscapes and integrated vegetation into Lagos’s expanding urban environment.
The warning comes amid public concern over projected heat-related deaths, highlighted in a viral video by Nigerian doctor Chinonso Fidelis Egemba, popularly known as Aproko Doctor.
In the video, Egemba cited research projecting 31,400 additional heat-related deaths in Nigeria between September 2026 and February 2027.
He stressed that preventive measures could save lives, urging people to check on older persons, babies and those with underlying health conditions.
He also advised outdoor workers to drink water regularly and seek shade.
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