Tigrayan forces have declared a return to full-scale war with Ethiopia’s federal government after launching attacks into neighbouring regions, raising fears of a wider regional conflict.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which controls the northern Tigray region, seized three airports from federal police on Wednesday and advanced into parts of Afar and Amhara.
Heavy artillery attacks were reported in Afar on Thursday as Tigrayan forces attempted to take control of Yallo, near the Tigray border. The rebels also captured Abala, while fighting was reported around Weldiya in Amhara.
The developments mark a major escalation between the TPLF and the federal government after a peace agreement ended the devastating 2020-2022 Tigray war, which African Union estimates say killed more than 600,000 people.
The renewed offensive has raised concerns that the conflict could spread beyond Tigray, particularly as the rebels operate alongside armed groups in Afar and Amhara.
Regional analyst Kjetil Tronvoll said the offensive appeared to mirror the TPLF’s strategy during the previous war, when its forces attempted to disrupt government supply lines and advance towards Addis Ababa.
The attack in Afar could also threaten Ethiopia’s main trade route through Djibouti, on which the landlocked country depends for most of its international cargo, including fuel.
The conflict also risks drawing Eritrea into the crisis. Ethiopia and Eritrea have been at odds over Addis Ababa’s efforts to secure access to the Red Sea, while analysts have alleged that Eritrea supports the Tigrayan forces.
The TPLF said it had no information about Eritrea’s plans and had not requested its intervention.
The Ethiopian government has condemned the latest offensive, while the United States said it was disappointed by the TPLF’s decision to launch a large-scale attack.
The renewed fighting follows months of escalating tensions. The federal government has carried out drone strikes in Tigray and deployed troops along the regional border, while rights groups have accused the TPLF of forced recruitment as it prepared for a possible new conflict.
The TPLF has also strengthened its alliances with armed groups in Amhara, including the Fano militia, marking a significant shift from the previous war when Fano and Eritrean forces fought alongside the federal government against Tigray.
The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement had maintained an uneasy calm between the sides, but clashes resumed late last year, while about one million people remain displaced from the previous conflict.
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