Renewed fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan fighters has reached areas around a crucial trade route to Djibouti, raising concerns over disruption to the landlocked country’s main supply line.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front seized the mountain town of Erebti in the Afar region on Sunday and advanced eastwards towards the Djibouti border, according to reports.
The route is strategically important to Ethiopia, which relies on Djibouti for almost all of its trade cargo, including fuel.
Conflict monitor ACLED warned that any disruption could strain Ethiopia’s relations with Djibouti, which has not joined the emerging alliance of armed groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The renewed clashes began on September 23 after months of rising tensions between the federal government and authorities in Tigray.
The TPLF had formed the Alliance for Survival with seven other armed groups shortly before the latest fighting, with the alliance seeking to overthrow the federal government.
The TPLF also seized several airports from federal police and launched attacks into neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions.
Federal forces have also recorded territorial gains, capturing the strategic town of Alamata in southern Tigray on Monday, less than 200 kilometres from the regional capital, Mekelle.
The latest conflict comes four years after the Pretoria Peace Agreement ended the 2020-2022 Tigray war, one of the deadliest conflicts in recent years. The African Union has estimated that more than 600,000 people died during the war.
The peace agreement has remained only partially implemented, with about one million displaced people still unable to return home.
The federal government retains a significant military advantage, including a large drone fleet and support from the United Arab Emirates. The TPLF, however, has extensive experience in guerrilla warfare and is particularly familiar with the mountainous terrain of northern Ethiopia.
Analysts say the renewed fighting could remain concentrated around Tigray rather than develop into an immediate attempt by the TPLF to seize Addis Ababa.
The conflict is also being complicated by allegations of foreign support. Ethiopian army commander Field Marshal Birhanu Jula has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the TPLF, although the allegations have not been established.
The anti-government alliance comprises groups with differing strengths and objectives, while the Fano militia in Amhara and the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front have been among the groups most active in the latest clashes.
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