COP31: WMO warns El Niño could push 2027 temperatures higher

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that 2027 could set a new global temperature record as a strong El Niño compounds the effects of climate change.

WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, gave the warning on Monday while presenting the organisation’s State of the Climate Update 2026 at a news conference during COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.

Saulo said the past 12 years were the warmest on record, with the past four years, including 2026, ranking as the four warmest.
She said global average temperatures between January and September 2026 were about 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to her, the developing 2026/2027 El Niño is unusually strong, with sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific forecast to approach four times the 0.5-degree threshold used to declare the climate phenomenon.

“Indeed, this 2026/2027 El Niño is off the charts. It is different from any El Niño that we have monitored,” she said.

Saulo explained that El Niño typically has its greatest influence on global temperatures the following year, raising concerns that 2027 could record another temperature high.

She said ocean heat had reached a record for the 10th consecutive year, while sea levels had also risen to unprecedented levels, increasing risks for about 900 million people living along low-lying coasts.

The WMO chief said extreme heat, tropical cyclones and rainstorms were intensifying, exposing millions of people to dangerous temperatures in 2026.

She cited heatwaves across India, Pakistan, Asia and North America, as well as tens of thousands of excess deaths in Europe.
“The human and economic cost is unacceptably high,” she said.

Saulo said the number of countries reporting multi-hazard early-warning systems had risen from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.

She urged governments at COP31 to strengthen global climate observations and provide adequate funding for early-warning systems.

“We cannot afford to fly blind,” she said, stressing the importance of sustained observations worldwide to anticipate climate risks and protect lives.

Also speaking, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, said the climate crisis was a global health emergency, with extreme heat, pollution and climate-related disasters placing pressure on health systems.

He said heatwaves during the northern summer had killed an estimated 50,000 people across Europe, while hundreds of millions were exposed to extreme heat in southern Asia.

“The climate crisis is now a global health crisis of pandemic proportions,” Stiell said.

He highlighted the threat of extreme heat to pregnant women, newborns and maternal health, linking the impacts to continued fossil fuel consumption and deforestation.

Stiell said health would remain central to COP31, building on progress made at COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

He urged countries to accelerate electrification and clean energy adoption, warning that continued dependence on fossil fuels would raise costs for households, businesses and governments.

“At this COP, nations face a choice: electric or shock. Rewire the global economy for the electric age. Or accept ongoing fossil fuel cost pain for families, firms, and governments,” he said.

Alan Dangour, Director of Climate and Health at Wellcome, said fossil fuel-related air pollution and extreme heat were estimated to cause more than three million deaths annually.

He said climate change was already affecting communities through extreme heat, drought and changing water conditions, with implications for food security, sanitation and livelihoods.

Dangour said available solutions included cleaner energy, electrification, heat early-warning systems and adaptation measures.
He said the Climate and Health Funders Coalition had awarded more than 225 million dollars in its first year to support interventions addressing extreme heat, air pollution, climate-sensitive infectious diseases and data systems.

The coalition, established at COP30 with an initial joint commitment of 300 million dollars from Wellcome and more than 35 philanthropic organisations, had also attracted an additional 150 million dollars in funding commitments, he said.

Dangour urged governments and businesses to put human health at the centre of climate policies, with priority attention to children, pregnant women, outdoor workers and older people.

“We must change course and put the health and wellbeing of people at the heart of our response to climate change,” he said.